A year ago, we used mathematics to predict the date and number of the last One Piece chapter based on Eiichiro Oda’s predictions. This week the author estimated finishing the series in 5 years, so we decided to update the numbers.

Contrary to what most people may think, Oda is relatively consistent with its predictions. Of the 7 we know, 5 estimated dates are within a year. Obviously we don’t expect to hit the exact values through math alone, but these calculations are always fun to do, so here are the results for anyone interested.

One Piece Ending Predictions

The next table lists the predictions of the end of One Piece. It includes information about the date on which they were stated, what chapter the series was in, and how many days had passed since the release of One Piece.

#
Prediction
Stated
Chapters
passed
Days
passed
Prediction 1Oda estimates that it will last 5 years1997-07-1900
Prediction 2Oda says timeskip marks 50% of the series2010-08-305974,790
Prediction 3Oda says is 60% complete2012-12-156915,628
Prediction 4Editor Suguru Sugita says is 70% complete2015-07-177936,572
Prediction 5Oda says is 65% complete2016-07-208326,941
Prediction 6Oda says is 80% complete2018-07-219127,672
Prediction 7Oda estimates that it will last 5 years2019-08-309538,077

One Piece Ending Based on Chapter

The next table lists information in which chapter and date One Piece will end, assuming that the predictions was based on chapters. “Real Average” includes all values, and “Tuned Average” excludes the two most distant predictions (by under and over).

#
Chapters
to finish
Days to
finish
End chapter
(chapter based)
End date
(chapter based)
Real average1,0412021-10-20
Tuned average1,1532024-06-01
Prediction 12381,8102382002-07-02
Prediction 25975,1881,1942024-11-12
Prediction 34614,0031,1522023-12-01
Prediction 43403,1811,1332024-03-31
Prediction 54484,1931,2802028-01-11
Prediction 62282,1341,1402024-05-23
Prediction 71951,8251,1482024-08-28

One Piece Ending Based on Date

The next table lists information in which chapter and date One Piece will end, assuming that the predictions was based on date. “Real Average” includes all values, and “Tuned Average” excludes the two most distant predictions (by under and over).

#
Chapters
to finish
Days
to finish
End chapter
(date based)
End date
(date based)
Real average1,0142021-02-24
Tuned average1,1262023-09-29
Prediction 12401,8262402002-07-19
Prediction 25514,7901,1482023-10-11
Prediction 34323,7521,1232023-03-25
Prediction 43012,8171,0942023-04-02
Prediction 53993,7371,2312026-10-13
Prediction 62051,9181,1172023-10-21
Prediction 71951,8271,1482024-08-30

One Piece Ending Average

The next table lists information in which chapter and date One Piece will end, calculated by averaging the estimations by date and chapters. “Real Average” includes all values, and “Tuned Average” excludes the two most distant predictions (by under and over).

#
End chapter
(average)
End date
(average)
Real average1,0282021-06-23
Tuned average1,1402024-01-30
Prediction 12392002-07-10
Prediction 21,1712024-04-27
Prediction 31,1372023-07-28
Prediction 41,1132023-10-01
Prediction 51,2562027-05-29
Prediction 61,1282024-02-05
Prediction 71,1482024-08-29

Conclusion

Taking into account the data presented by the observed predictions, and excluding the two most distant predictions, it is estimated that One Piece will end on Monday, February 5, 2024 at chapter 1,140.

This Post Has 3 Comments

  1. VKaeru

    Hello ! Nice work, especially the map ! But all the categories are interesting and well documented. Just a thing, when you want to change the order of the prediction’s dates on the template, it takes the value of the month/day/year. It would be mlre logical to change the dates to year/month/day, for example 2010 02 24,to make it work. Thanks a lot !

    1. Clay Stage

      Thanks for the tip, and you’re absolutely right! Table updated!

  2. ALonerPS

    According To Me The Manga will end on 22nd July 2024 with 1165 chapters and The Anime will end on 20th October 2024 with 1165 Episodes

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