Please check the updated prediction here!
A year ago, we used mathematics to predict the date and number of the last One Piece chapter based on Eiichiro Oda’s predictions. This week the author estimated finishing the series in 5 years, so we decided to update the numbers.
Contrary to what most people may think, Oda is relatively consistent with its predictions. Of the 7 we know, 5 estimated dates are within a year. Obviously we don’t expect to hit the exact values through math alone, but these calculations are always fun to do, so here are the results for anyone interested.
One Piece Ending Predictions
The next table lists the predictions of the end of One Piece. It includes information about the date on which they were stated, what chapter the series was in, and how many days had passed since the release of One Piece.
| # | Prediction | Stated | Chapters passed | Days passed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction 1 | Oda estimates that it will last 5 years | 1997-07-19 | 0 | 0 |
| Prediction 2 | Oda says timeskip marks 50% of the series | 2010-08-30 | 597 | 4,790 |
| Prediction 3 | Oda says is 60% complete | 2012-12-15 | 691 | 5,628 |
| Prediction 4 | Editor Suguru Sugita says is 70% complete | 2015-07-17 | 793 | 6,572 |
| Prediction 5 | Oda says is 65% complete | 2016-07-20 | 832 | 6,941 |
| Prediction 6 | Oda says is 80% complete | 2018-07-21 | 912 | 7,672 |
| Prediction 7 | Oda estimates that it will last 5 years | 2019-08-30 | 953 | 8,077 |
One Piece Ending Based on Chapter
The next table lists information in which chapter and date One Piece will end, assuming that the predictions was based on chapters. “Real Average” includes all values, and “Tuned Average” excludes the two most distant predictions (by under and over).
| # | Chapters to finish | Days to finish | End chapter (chapter based) | End date (chapter based) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction 1 | 238 | 1,810 | 238 | 2002-07-02 |
| Prediction 2 | 597 | 5,188 | 1,194 | 2024-11-12 |
| Prediction 3 | 461 | 4,003 | 1,152 | 2023-12-01 |
| Prediction 4 | 340 | 3,181 | 1,133 | 2024-03-31 |
| Prediction 5 | 448 | 4,193 | 1,280 | 2028-01-11 |
| Prediction 6 | 228 | 2,134 | 1,140 | 2024-05-23 |
| Prediction 7 | 195 | 1,825 | 1,148 | 2024-08-28 |
| Real average | 1,041 | 2021-10-20 | ||
| Tuned average | 1,153 | 2024-06-01 |
One Piece Ending Based on Date
The next table lists information in which chapter and date One Piece will end, assuming that the predictions was based on date. “Real Average” includes all values, and “Tuned Average” excludes the two most distant predictions (by under and over).
| # | Chapters to finish | Days to finish | End chapter (date based) | End date (date based) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction 1 | 240 | 1,826 | 240 | 2002-07-19 |
| Prediction 2 | 551 | 4,790 | 1,148 | 2023-10-11 |
| Prediction 3 | 432 | 3,752 | 1,123 | 2023-03-25 |
| Prediction 4 | 301 | 2,817 | 1,094 | 2023-04-02 |
| Prediction 5 | 399 | 3,737 | 1,231 | 2026-10-13 |
| Prediction 6 | 205 | 1,918 | 1,117 | 2023-10-21 |
| Prediction 7 | 195 | 1,827 | 1,148 | 2024-08-30 |
| Real average | 1,014 | 2021-02-24 | ||
| Tuned average | 1,126 | 2023-09-29 |
One Piece Ending Average
The next table lists information in which chapter and date One Piece will end, calculated by averaging the estimations by date and chapters. “Real Average” includes all values, and “Tuned Average” excludes the two most distant predictions (by under and over).
| # | End chapter (average) | End date (average) |
|---|---|---|
| Prediction 1 | 239 | 2002-07-10 |
| Prediction 2 | 1,171 | 2024-04-27 |
| Prediction 3 | 1,137 | 2023-07-28 |
| Prediction 4 | 1,113 | 2023-10-01 |
| Prediction 5 | 1,256 | 2027-05-29 |
| Prediction 6 | 1,128 | 2024-02-05 |
| Prediction 7 | 1,148 | 2024-08-28 |
| Real average | 1,028 | 2021-06-23 |
| Tuned average | 1,140 | 2024-01-30 |
Conclusion
Taking into account the data presented by the observed predictions, and excluding the two most distant predictions, it is estimated that One Piece will end on Monday, February 5, 2024 at chapter 1,140.
Eiichiro Oda Confirms He Plans To End One Piece In Three Years
PUBLISHED JUL 22, 2022
One Piece’s author confirmed his goal to end the series in a recent interview with Gosho Aoyama.
Won’t you guys Add this to #8 Yet. About 3-5 Years Left . From the Wano Saga End.
Thanks for sharing! I’ll add this prediction as soon as I have some time!
Yep , Although this might be wrong , But still makes it feel like , we really are near the end game.
Yeah.. But i feel this is doable in next 5 Years , You can see since wano’s end Oda is dumping a lot of enough , feels like a light novel while reading Hahaha!!!
Updated here: https://claystage.com/one-piece-ending-prediction-3
This is awesome.
Hello ! Nice work, especially the map ! But all the categories are interesting and well documented. Just a thing, when you want to change the order of the prediction’s dates on the template, it takes the value of the month/day/year. It would be mlre logical to change the dates to year/month/day, for example 2010 02 24,to make it work. Thanks a lot !
Thanks for the tip, and you’re absolutely right! Table updated!
According To Me The Manga will end on 22nd July 2024 with 1165 chapters and The Anime will end on 20th October 2024 with 1165 Episodes